Get it? Overtime!?

So, the wheels started turning in my head the Sunday of Nov. 2 when the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers played in Nashville.  You see, the Titans beat the Packers in overtime after winning the overtime coin toss and using that initial possession to drive and kick a field goal that fell true in the sudden death period.  I’ve noticed before how every time an NFL game goes into overtime, the followup to that game seemingly coming from everyone between the talking heads on tv to the talking mugs in print to the anonymous geniuses on the internet is centered around the NFL overtime policy and each entity’s opinion on the fairness of said policy (happened again this past tuesday after the MNF overtime game with the Bears beating the Packers). 

I usually like to refrain from adding my $0.02 to the mix and just move along because the NFL doesn’t seem eager to change overtime anytime soon and since those two pennies are currently stretched pretty thin between other unchangeable policies such as implementing some sort of college football playoff and abolishing preseason college football and basketball polls. 

But, after listening to everyone whine about the perceived overtime problem after the Titans-Packers game, I decided to pay a little more attention to the whiners’ proposed solutions.  That in itself was a problem since they all sucked.  I personally try to avoid labeling problems as such without having some semblence of a solution handy.  So, for today’s trick, I’ll label a problem and present a solution: 

Problem - the proposed solutions, when one actually exists, are part of the original problem.  I think the reason that people can’t agree on a solution to the NFL’s overtime policy is that each solution presented has it’s own flaws and/or ridiculousness associated with it.

Solution - come up with a better solution.

First, though, in order to treat the problem, we must accurately diagnose the root problem, which is that the overtime policy unfairly favors the team that randomly wins the coin toss.  How true is this sentiment though? 

After Googling “NFL overtime coin toss,” I started clicking on anything that resembled stats showing the frequency of the coin toss winner being the eventual game winner.  There were a lot of discrepancies, which I partially attributed to exaggeration and/or blind guessing (80%, 64%, 62%, 60%, etc.).  I am settling on the number 64% because Time magazine printed it and hat-tipped the Elias Sports Bureau. 

So, Time says that Elias says that 64% of overtime periods end with the team that had possession first in overtime winning the game.  That stat’s not specific enough though because the statistic inherenty implies that the coin toss winner could have lost possession of the ball, prevented the opposing team from scoring, regained possession of the ball, and then scored for the win.  To be fair to the diagnosis of the problem, we need to know how often a team wins the coin toss and scores before ever allowing the opposing team a possession.  Luckily for us, the Time article also cites Elias as saying that 44% of coin toss winners score on their first possession to win the game. 

44%…that’s not all that often…well, not at first glance.  Consider the kicking/defending team’s viewpoint; they have a 44% chance of not even touching the ball to attempt to score first.  There, my friends, is exactly where the unfairness lies. 

So, now that we know that the overtime system is unfair to the team that loses the coin toss and must kick away, we can attempt to solve the conundrum and end the game fairly.  Let’s look at some solutions I’m sure we’ve all heard many times:

- Adopt the college football overtime system.  I love college overtime; it’s intense and heartbreaking!  I screamed through 6 overtimes between Tennessee and Arkansas at Neyland Stadium in 2002 (Jason Witten caught the winning touchdown pass from Casey Clausen).  Every fan was passionately hanging on every play of every overtime.  College football overtime is probably the most exciting period of play of any sport that I can think of.  The advantages of college overtime is that each team has equal opportunity to score and there will be a winner.  However, the downfall is that it’s not real football; the rules are changed for overtime.  Each team starts their offensive possession with the ball 25 yards from the end zone and there are no kickoffs/punts.  The only time special teams sees the field during overtime is if a field goal is being attempted so that entire faction of the game is neglected.

- If they can’t settle it in 60 minutes, allow the game to end in a tie.  I hate ties.  What’s the point of holding a competition if a possibility exists where the end result is that the competing parties are equals?  None!  This is America!  Well…that doesn’t really have anything to do with anything…but either way, I want a winner.  I need closure, even when it comes in the form of a loss.  There’s also a different version of this idea where the teams play a full “5th quarter” and if it’s still tied, the game is called.

- Move the ball back to the 35 yard line for the overtime kickoffs.  Consider this quote from a study published in 2004:

Interestingly, the cumulative data hide the effect of a rule change that occurred in 1994, when kickoffs were moved back 5 yards to the 30-yard line. Since 1994, nearly one-third of overtime games have been won on the first possession by the team that received the ball first. In the first 20 seasons, under the old rule, slightly more than one-quarter of the games were won in this fashion.

A recent analysis by economist Richard E. Hawkins of Pennsylvania State University in DuBois confirms that these differences are statistically significant.

“The analysis finds with 99.99 % certainty that the [coin] flip has made a difference in the outcome of the game over the last 10 years,” he concludes. “But for the period prior to those 10 years, the coin flip cannot be shown to be important.”

This idea seems to level the playing field and even up the odds a bit that the team that opens overtime as the kicking team will have the opportunity to play one offense, I still don’t like it because it would be a different rule set for overtime.  It’s similar to my reasoning for not using the college system – it’s not the same football game that was played the previous 60 minutes. 

There are other proposed solutions but I can’t think of any specifically right now.  I also can’t seem to find one like mine though:

Play an extra full quarter, and if necessary, a following sudden death period until somebody wins.  This “5th quarter” would begin just as if it were the beginning of the game: there’s a coin toss that determines who kicks off and subsequently who defends which end zone.  Both teams have an entire 15 minutes to attempt to outscore the opposition under the exact same rules as the previous 60 minutes.  If the score is still tied at the end of the “5th quarter,” then the game becomes an unlimited time period of sudden death football.  The end of the “5th quarter” would be treated just as the transition from the 1st-to-2nd and 3rd-to-4th quarters is; i.e. the team with possession of the ball retains possession and both teams switch field.  The game clock is then turned off and they battle until someone scores first.

Why is this overtime more fair?  The longest drive in NFL history, that I can find, consisted of 24 plays for 93 yards and lasted a total of 10:22 of football time (even if this drive opened the “5th quarter” period, the opposing team would still have over 4 minutes for the opportunity to drive the field and answer any score).  Therefore, both teams get to play regular football and the statistical advantage of winning a coin flip is negated to only inclue typical football circumstances (wind direction/speed, sun positioning, field conditions, etc.).

What do you guys think?  I think it’s perfect; problem solved!  Leave any comments below and try to find holes in my NFL overtime solution.  I should be able to shoot down any perceived flaws you can throw at me…and if so, we’ll make this the official “Sparty and Friends NFL Overtime Proposal.”

Oh yeah, I keep meaning to add email contacts to posts:
 - for complaints, tips, and/or donations - mizerle06(at)gmail(dot)com
 - for compliments – spartyandfriends(at)gmail(dot)com

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