The Hot Stove Season is upon us, and since the NFL season is winding down, I needed a new shtick in order to stay relevant within these pages.  Since the only sports I know well enough to really contribute to are football & baseball, I figured – why not start spreading Hot Stove Rumors like they were holiday cheer and goodwill toward men!

So here’s how it’s gonna work.  I’ll give a Boston perspective on deals since, ya know, I’m from “Bawstun” (I actually have absolutely no Boston accent even though I’ve lived here my whole life).  Sparty’s gonna drop some NYC knowledge on us.  I’m hoping Trey can give us a small-market Florida perspective, and Mikey might check in with the West Coast Bias of the Lovable Losers.  And finally, if we’re lucky, Miz will stop by and give us the take on free agency from the Minor League angle.  Actually, if we’re lucky Miz will just stick to UT business…

Feel free to jump in with your own predictions in the comments – hey, if we get another major story right, we might lead a legitimate sports broadcast instead of the local news in Tumbleweed, Idaho.

1) Edgar Renteria

D: I’m kidding with that #1 ranking, obviously.  But I mean, clearly he’s the most sought after name on the market!  Why else would a team like the San Francisco Giants leap at the opportunity to sign a 33-year old shortstop coming off a .270AVG / .699OPS season with 10 homers and 55 RBI in the AL Central?  And give him $18.5M over two years to boot?  It’s a no-brainer!  I’m just completely taken aback by this whole signing.  I love how sportswriters & broadcasters keep telling us that the recession is going to kill free agency, then something like this happens.  I hope I win the Mega Millions tonight just so I can write something like “Big D signs with the Multi-State Lotto for 30 years and $170M”.

OK, for real now.  Onto the actual 2008 free agents and their probable locations in 2009.

1) CC Sabathia

He made himself boku bucks last year by handling his trade to Milwaukee with class, then going out and single-handedly getting the BrewCrew to the postseason for the first time in a couple decades.

Stats: 17-10 / 2.70 ERA / 1.11 WHIP / 251 K / 59 BB / 19HR / 28yr old on Opening Day (stats split between AL & NL)

D: Well, since the Yankees have already reportedly offered an unreal contract (6yr/$140M) to Sabathia, I think he’d be a fool to turn it down.  Plus, I’d love to see him try to handle the AL East for the next six years.  But my gut says that either of the LA teams is going to swoop in and make an offer of something like 8 years and $165M.  The AAV would be less, but the total contract would be more and he really wants to play in California.  My guess is the Angels at somewhere around those numbers, but if they blow their whole stack on Teixeira or Manny they’ll back off of CC.  Remember – quality starting pitching is the one thing the Angels have a ton of.

Sparty: I am really being tickled by all the speculation surrounding Sabathia.  He is coming to play in pinstripes.  Don’t let all this hoopla about the California teams fool you.  Nor let the Yanks amping up talks with Lowe and Burnett throw you off the trail.  UPDATE : I feel good.

Trey: To quote Sparty, “Bank on it” he’s a Yankee. He’s just using the Dodgers to drive his price up.

Mikey: CC Is building a home in SoCal…and after playing in Milwaukee he has realized that he wants to bat. The Dodgers seem logical to me. The Yankees will offer the biggest check, but they also offer the biggest task…Is NY ready to win now? Can they get past Boston? Hell…can they get past the Rays? LAD plays in the NL West…they have Joe Torre running the show. They could get to the postseason every year for the next six because Colorado and San Diego are selling….and the Giants are rebuilding. If I am CC I ask myself a really hard question…Who was the last big free agent pitcher to have any success in pinstripes? Mike Mussina… and he didnt even win a ring. The only reason I see him not ending up on the Best Coast is if the Union pressures him not to leave money on the table. LAD…7 years $150M

2) Mark Teixeira

He’s a Gold-Glove & Silver Slugger winning, switch hitting, 30/100 first baseman who has spent most of his career in the American League.

Stats: .308 AVG/ .962 OPS / 102 R / 33HR / 121 RBI / 97 BB / 93 K / 28yr old on Opening Day (stats split between AL & NL)

D: I keep hearing the Orioles, Rays and other small market teams being mentioned when it comes to Big Tex.  Let’s face it – there are four teams that can afford him and have a need for either a slugger or a first baseman.  The Yankees, Angels, Dodgers & Red Sox.  The more I look at his numbers, the more I see a perfect #4 hitter in Fenway Park.  Sure, it means Boston has to move Mike Lowell just one year after he was the World Series MVP, but if there’s one thing Theo & the Trio have proven they’ll do, it’s move popular players to make the team better.  I say Boston: 7yr, $135M.

Sparty: I say Boston too. Damn it.

Trey: Boston. This is the perfect 1st Baseman in the Boston lineup.

Mikey: The Yankees…book it. Steinbrenner will lose out on CC and will have the money to outbid himself on this one. 5 years $100M

3) Manny Ramirez

Let’s face it – every single GM out there knows what you’re getting with Manny Ramirez at this point.  25+HR, 90+RBI, .290+ AVG, at least one “What the f*@@?” moment per season (sometimes once a month).  The first season of the contract he’s happy as can be, and each year thereafter he gets a little bit more petulant.  I swear – if any MLB star could make a case for taking Ritalin to control legit ADD, it’s Manny.

Stats: .332 AVG/ 1.031 OPS / 102 R / 37HR / 121 RBI / 87 BB / 124 K / 36yr old on Opening Day (stats split between AL & NL)

D: Remember when all the talk was about Manny going to the Yankees to play for the team he rooted for as a kid?  Suddenly the Yanks have become spendthrifts and no longer see a need to waste $100M on another OF/DH type.  The Dodgers desperately need to keep this guy around, if for no other reason than to keep putting butts in the seats.  They’re likely losing Furcal, Nomar and probably Derek Lowe – the fans would like to have at least one semi-familiar face in 2009.  I say Dodgers: 2yr / $55M with a team option for 1yr / $25M (Dark Horse – look out for the Mets swooping in on this one.  Just a gut feeling, but they have the money to work with and could use one more big bat in the lineup)

Sparty: I still think the Yanks want a big bat to go along with A-Rod.  I say he ends up in the Bronx.

Trey: Stays in LA. He seemed to shine there on a team that was starving for a big star. Not only was he the catalyst to a nice little playoff run, but his numbers were sick. If LA really wants to be a legit World Series contender they’ll need to resign Manny.

Mikey: Dodgers will spend elsewhere because it won’t take Manny to win the NL West…my gut says the yankees reshuffle their outfield and Hideki Matsui shifts between DH and LF…Xaiver Nady shifts back and forthe between Center and Left….Johnny Damon between Center and Right…wow…this gets complicated….all so Manny can play some LF and mostly DH…I just dont see Steinbrenner letting Manny get away – I just cant. The Yanks overpay….3 Years $75M

4) Francisco Rodriguez

He set the single-season saves record last season with an obscene 62 of 69 saves converted.  Of course, he also appeared in seven more games than any other season in his seven year career.  Who knows what that’ll do to his arm, especially with that ridiculous pitching motion.

Stats: 2-3 / 62 of 69 SV / 2.24 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 77 K / 34 BB / 27yr old on Opening Day

D: I’m still getting over the fact that this guy is only going to be 27 on Opening Day 2009.  Do you realize that makes him younger than Jonathon Papelbon by a full two years?  I’ll admit, this one is kind of cheating since it looks like almost a done deal that he’ll be a Met by the end of the week.  When last year ended, I texted a bunch of my Mets’ fan friends to tell them to go get K-Rod.  I expected something along the lines of a 3yr, $38-$45M contract.  Some sources are saying 2yr/$24M, others are saying 3yr/$36.  Either way, this seems like the most logical fit, even if the money is much less than he was expecting.  Plus, when he gets his next contract he’ll still be in his prime.  Shrewd work there by his agent, locking him in short-term.  Unless of course that ridiculous pitching motion ruins his arm, back, legs, head, neck, or any other part of his body that he contorts to throw the nastiest slider in the big leagues.  EDIT: Looks like K-Rod to the Mets is a done deal as of Tuesday night.  Let’s just move on.

Sparty: Hey, I wanted to predict that the Marlins would pony up!

Trey: Japan. Oh wait…Mets

Mikey: With Kerry Wood gone….The Mets did wha???

5) AJ Burnett

He had a mostly nondescript tenure in Toronto after a mostly nondescript tenure in Miami.  He’s made 30+ starts only three times in his career – shockingly two of those three came in contract years.  Once threw a no-hitter while walking 9 batters and striking out only 7.

Stats: 18-10 / 4.07 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / 231 K / 86 BB / 32yr old on Opening Day

D: So, he’s an injury prone #2 starter who only tries hard when there’s money to be made.  He’s about to sign his last big contract, so he’s probably going to wait until the other big names are off the board and then have his agent (Darek Braunecker – I know, I expected it to be Scott Boras too) contact whichever teams missed out on guys like Sabathia, Big Tex and Manny.  In other words, he’s looking for mega-bucks and very little pressure.  Which is why it astounds me that the Red Sox are so intent on signing him.  He’s like the JD Drew of pitchers.  I’d hate to see Boston waste time and money on this guy, so I’m going to go with my heart and say he ends up in Anaheim for  5yr/$72M.

Sparty: Yankees will sign him for 4yrs/55 million with a vesting option worth 15 million for the 5th year.

Trey: The Yankees need a replacement for Pavano…but I think Burnett ends up in Boston.

Mikey: Once the Yankees lose out on CC,  Burnett and Lowe end up in pinstripes…

6) Adam Dunn

Remember when Adam Dunn was the blue chip trading prospect for the Cincinnati Reds?  Or when he, Ken Griffey Jr. and Austin Kearns were supposed to be the the greatest single-season hitting outfield ever?  Now it seems like he’s a forgotten man in the free agency list, barely cracking most people’s top 10 or 15.

Stats: .236 AVG/ .898 OPS / 79 R / 40HR / 100 RBI / 122 BB / 164 K / 29yr old on Opening Day

D: For the past five years, Adam Dunn has averaged 41HR, 100RBI and a .915OPS.  Sure, his batting average is absurdly low and he strikes out almost once every three ABs.  But you put him in the right lineup, preferably in the American League, and he could be an absolute monster.  There’s no reason that a team couldn’t grab him relatively cheap (he made $13M last year in a club option after earning about $8M on average the past two years) and stick him at DH to hide his defensive deficiencies.  He could still end up on an NL club like Atlanta or the Dodgers if they lose out on the bigger names, but I think he’s going to take over the spot left by Jason Giambi in New York – a masher with little to no defensive value.  Yankees: 4yr/$52M.  (Dark Horse – look out for the A’s.  Adam Dunn is the definition of a Billy Beane type of hitter, and the A’s seem to be building to win in ‘09)

Sparty: The Dodgers will need offense with the loss of Manny.

Trey: The Rays are pushing for his services, but I think he ends up with the Braves.

Mikey: Los Angeles will make Dunn the poor man’s Manny…if I had to predict the numbers I would say reluctantly 4 years $48M…same production…same defense…less money.

7) Derek Lowe

He ain’t flashy.  He doesn’t put up the big numbers or make sure to get his face on the cameras.  He doesn’t start clubhouse brawls or argue with his managers.  But he does go out to the mound every fifth day and give what he’s got.  His numbers say he’s a middle of the road, #2/#3 type of starter, and for some teams that’s exactly what he might be.  But he’s got three or four more years left in him and he’s probably a bargain compared to the money that’s going to be thrown at the other guys in the mix this year.

Stats: 14-11 / 3.24 ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 147 K / 45 BB / 35yr old on Opening Day

D: I’ll come right out and say it – I’m a Derek Lowe fan.  Have been since he made his break in Boston.  I’d love to see him back in a Sox uniform, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.  The last time he hit free agency (2004) he had the misfortune of getting second billing in the market behind guys like Pedro, Bartolo Colon, Kevin Millwood, Matt Morris & Kerry Wood.  This year, he’s the third best starter in the group and he’s going to get paid like it.  I don’t see the Sox shelling out the money it’s going to take to get him back to Boston.  I’d guess Yankees; if they miss out on Sabathia I’d be shocked if they didn’t snatch up Lowe and Burnett.  Yankees: 4yr/$56M (Dark Horse – Look out for Philadelphia.  Derek Lowe as a #3 behind Hamels & Myers would be a power starting rotation)

Sparty: Philly, I like that.  You did a lot of work.

Trey: Yankees. They need another arm and he brings some solid postseason pitching.

Mikey: Once the Yankees lose out on CC,  Burnett and Lowe end up in pinstripes…(cut’d and paste’d)

8 ) Pat Burrell

He’s got a cannon for an arm and a gaping hole in his swing.  He’s good for 30 homers, 90+ RBI and at least 120K per season.  In the right lineup, he could be a force.  But if hitting with guys like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley & Ryan Howard isn’t the right lineup…

Stats: .250 AVG/ .875 OPS / 74 R / 33HR / 86 RBI / 102 BB / 136 K / 32yr old on Opening Day

D: I’m so tempted to just copy and past the Adam Dunn information.  They’re basically the same player except Dunn has played with worse lineups around him and Burrell is a much better outfielder.  Burrell seems like the more likely to end up with a small-market club, since he’s older and has put up lesser stats than Dunn over the past few seasons.  Chances are he stays in the NL with a club like San Fran or maybe Colorado now with Matt Holiday gone to Oakland.  Or maybe the A’s just add Burrell to their lineup.  But I think he’s going to end up with the team he just beat for a World Series title to replace the Rocco Baldelli/Cliff Floyd combo in the outfield.  Rays: 3yr/$39M

Sparty: He is staying put.

Trey: Stays in Philly. I really think the market is tight on this guy now. If he were to leave, the Angels would be a big contender.

Mikey: Burrell gives the Phillies a hometown discount…I think Burrell wants to end his career as a Phillie…6 Years $54M

9) Rafael Furcal

Probably the best overall defensive player on this list, he’s coming off of a lost season where he made only 36 appearances in the regular season due to a host of injuries, most notably a bad back.  He’s already turned down a 4yr/$35-$40M offer from the A’s.

Stats: .357 AVG/ 1.012 OPS / 34 R / 5HR / 16 RBI / 20 BB / 17 K / 31yr old on Opening Day (2008 stats for only 36 games – 143ABs – due to injury)

D:Well, I’d probably turn down 4yr/$35M from the A’s too if I knew Edgar Renteria got 2yr/$18.5M.  I mean, c’mon – that’s just basic math!  The problem is, with him coming off of such a serious lingering type of injury most teams aren’t going to look to commit major money to him, and certainly not in a long term deal.  He’s either signing a short-term contract or he’s going back to the Dodgers for the long haul (and less money).  Here’s where it gets interesting – what team can you think of with money to burn and a recent love of riding the shortstop carousel?  That’s right; the Boston Red Sox!  I can see him in Fenway next year on a one- or two-year deal to prove his health before signing one more contract down the line.  The Sox want Julio Lugo gone and aren’t quite ready to hand the reigns to Jed Lowrie just yet, so this would be yet another stopgap for them.  Boston: 1yr/$12M

Sparty: I would love Boston to make this deal.  I think Furcal will be much like Rentaria, unable to handle the pressures of Boston.  For those reasons, he will stay in the NL, I just don’t know where.

Trey: Stays in LA. The Dodgers really like him for some reason…

Mikey: 1 year deal somewhere to get his value back. I would love to see him in Cubbie Blue…especially if the Cubs part ways with Mark DeRosa…I dont see him settling fora long term deal for less and so I will go with the Cubs (not being a homer…the Cubs really do need an everyday shortstop because the Fuck-u-do-me experiment may be coming to an end sooner than later….Furcal will allow Reed Johnson (I hope)  to go to RF…Theriot to 2B. He switch hits which means the Cubs will primarily use him as a left handed bat….a Cubs “must have”

10) Bobby Abreu

You know, he’s unappreciated in his time.  Bobby Abreu was never a masher.  He was never designed to be the anchor of a lineup; the cleanup guy who you could always look to for the big fly at the opportune moment.  But Bobby Abreu is a perfect #5 hitter.  20+ homeruns every year since ‘99.  100+ RBI in all but 2 of those seasons (85 in ‘02, 79 in ‘00).  He’s had some good lineups around him in Philly & New York, and his numbers reflect that.  He had 47 steals the last two years in New York, which only adds to his value.

Stats: .296 AVG/ .843 OPS / 100 R / 20 HR / 100 RBI / 73 BB / 109 K / 35yr old on Opening Day

D: He seems like a prime candidate for one more 3-4 year contract to me, maybe with a National League contender.  I’d love to see him hitting in Colorado in 2009, if only because he could probably boost his numbers across the board by 10% and I have a knack for drafting him three rounds too early in fantasy baseball every year.  But most likely, I see him moving to a team like the Dodgers if Manny moves on or the Diamondbacks if they don’t get Adam Dunn back in the mix.  Atlanta is a distinct possibility as well.  If I had to take a shot in the dark, I’d say Arizona: 3yr/$36M.

Sparty: Bobby wants to win a series, and he does like Joe Torre.  If they don’t sign Adam Dunn, I can see Abreu end up in Dodger blue.  But I have a feeling he will stay out in the LA area, but sign with the Angels instead.

Trey: The Cubbies…He’ll fit in nice there.

Mikey: Trey makes me want to agree as I said before…Fukudome is not the answer in RF for the Cubs. I chatted regularly with a guy from Japan over at 100 Year Itch during a lot of games last year. He told me that Fukudome was interviewed by a Japanese MLB correspondent and this is what Fukudome said… (all spelling (sic))

fukudome sat down wit our mlb show after the game 2 loss.. he said some things that made my eyes water.. he said “he cant play in a cubs uni the way he could in japan or another mlb team”.. “the fun has been taken out of baseball in chicago..” “every day players are seen vomiting in the clubhouse to include the coach..” ” the stress level is so high that 97 win did not help the pain, it only made it worse..” ” how can we as players win for so manny people, generation after generation..” ” its a way of life for this fan base..” ” they spend their rent money on the cubs and not the casino.. “

Worst case scenario is Fukudome moves to CF and Abreu takes RF…Wont bore you with the line up…but again…LH power is atop the cubs “must have” list….Pay depends on Cubs ownership situation…Gut says 5 years $50M

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