We are just past halfway in the 2008 NFL Regular Season. At this point you have a pretty good idea of the contenders and the pretenders, right? Who is gonna play in the playoffs…Who is going to the Super Bowl…it’s cut and dried, right? Not so much…Parity is King in the NFL again so I thought it would be fun to spend about five hours breaking down each teams chances based on their remaining schedules. I wanted to do the AFC and the NFC…but shit like this takes too long to figure out. So here it is…the NFC Divsion Winners, Wild Card Winners, who is in…who is out…etc….

I am sure some of you will have differing and dissenting opinions…thats what the comment section is for…. 

Division Leaders

New York Giants
Remaining Schedule  – BAL, @AZ, @WAS, PHI, @DAL, CAR, @MIN
Current Record 8-1
Projected Finish 12-4

Remarks: The soft schedule for the Giants is behind them. Every team left on their schedule is vying for a playoff berth. The Giants have passed the test thus far though by beating playoff contenders from the AFC and the NFC…but of their eight wins, four are also at the expense of really shitty teams like the Bengals, Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers. Don’t get me wrong…the Giants are really good and they should cruise to the top seed in the NFC…I just get the feeling they split with all of their NFC East foes though which means three losses down the stretch. We will begin to see what they are made of this weekend when the host the Ravens.

Chicago Bears
Remaining Schedule – @ GB, @STL, @MIN, JAX, NO, GB, @HOU
Current Record 5-4
Projected Finish 9-7

Remarks: The Bears are not who I thought they were. Sure, they have five wins…but two of those are against the woeful Lions. The Colts win to start the season was a surprise, but it turns out the joke was on us as we found out that Peyton wasn’t Peyton after two surgeries. They got a quality win against the Eagles and put up a bunch of points against Minnesota…But are they really going to do any damage down the stretch. I gotta sell this one. They will have two gimmie wins against the Rams and Texans…Ill spot them the Jags and one of the Green Bay games…but outside of that Minnesota should overtake this team before the end of the season and win the North. Especially if Rex Grossman remains the starter…until he proves me wrong – He is still Rex.

 
Carolina Panthers
Remaining Schedule – DET, @ATL, @GB, TB, DEN, @NYG, @NO
Current Record 7-2
Projected Finish 11-5

Remarks: I am still surprisedto see the Panthers at 7-2. I have been picking apart other teams for easy wins so I will continue with this team and tell you that two of their wins were against the Raiders and the Chiefs…but every other win has been against quality teams (despite what I just said about the Bears). Gimmie wins against the Broncos and Lions get them to nine wins. They almost always beat TB once every season so give them the nod there too. That means one win against Atlanta, Green Bay, or New Orleans should get them into the two seed in the NFC.

Arizona Cardinals
Remaining Schedule – @ SEA, NYG, @PHI, STL, MIN, @NE, SEA
Current Record 6-3
Projected Finish 10-6

Remarks:You know all of those years when the 49ers were absolutely dominating the NFC West? Well it was usually because the Rams, Saints, and Falcons were so terrible and the 49ers played them each twice a year. Well Arizona is enjoying the same benefit here in 2008. They have one high quality win against the Cowboys and depending on how you feel about the Bills and Dolphins I will give these to the Cards as “Good Wins.” But look at their other wins and you get two against the 49ers, one against Miami, and another against the Rams. Two against the Seahawks and another against the Rams gets them to 9-3. I say they beat the Vikings, but lose to the Patriots, Eagles, and Giants. The NFC West gets them a playoff spot by default…probably the three seed though. Kurt Warner wins the NFL MVP….and goes from borderline HOF to First Ballot.

Wild Card Leaders

Washington Redskins
Remaining Schedule  – DAL, @ SEA, NYG, @BAL, @CIN, PHI, SF
Current Record 6-3
Projected Finish 10-6

Remarks: Not really sure about the Redskins yet. I know they have quality wins against the Cardinals, Cowboys, and Eagles…but they have loses against the upper echelon teams like the Giants and Steelers….not to mention a loss to the Rams. So the question is…are they underachieving or overachieving. I honestly don’t know one way or the other so I can only go on what there record says. Seattle, Cincinnati, and San Francisco should be easy wins which get them to nine wins..but Dallas, New York, and Philadelphia will only get them one win. the Ravens most likely man handle these guys and leave them at 10-6.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Remaining Schedule  – MIN, @DET, NO, @CAR, @ATL, SD, OAK
Current Record 6-3
Projected Finish 10-6

Remarks: The natural progression of doing an  analysis like this one is that you learn a lot while you write it. I mean, you have some clear cut ideas about all of the teams, but your research starts to show trends. Take Tampa for instance…they are so similar to the Redskins with their win loss trend that you can see why  they are trailing Carolina in the division and instead fighting for a Wild Card berth. Beating teams like Carolina and Chicago is great, but losing to Denver while KC takes them to overtime…well you just aren’t too certain what to expect. I think Oakland and Detroit get them to eight wins with defensive stands against Minnesota and Atlanta should get them to 10-6.

Atlanta Falcons
Remaining Schedule  -DEN, CAR, @SD, @NO, TB, @MIN, STL
Current Record 6-3
Projected Finish 9-7

Remarks: While Matt Ryan is the easy pick for ROY and the Falcons have been a nice surprise thus far…their luck may be coming to an end soon. Three of Atlanta’s wins have been against shitty teams so far in Kansas City, Detroit, and Oakland. They have lost against every quality team they have played so far…and there are a lot of quality teams they face down the stretch. I will spot them Denver and St. Louis but Carolina, San Diego, New Orleans, and Tampa should handle these guys to send them to a seven loss season. Depending on Minnesota they could even fade to 8-8. Atlanta has forgotten all about Michael Vick, but they still need to improve in a few other areas to contend for the playoffs next season.

In the Hunt

Dallas Cowboys
Remaining Schedule  – @ WAS, SF, SEA, @PIT, NYG, BAL, @PHI
Current Record 5-4
Projected Finish 10-6

Remarks: So many questions, so many concerns…can they be overcome by so much talent? The Dallas Cowboys are one big question mark. Is Tony Romo coming back just in time to save the season. Me thinks yes. First of all, Washington like we said, has their own issues. Dallas should return the home loss favor to the Redskins this weekend. Then San Francisco and Seattle (Thanksgiving) come to town to get the ‘Boys on a mini three game run and up to 8-4. Pittsburgh and Baltimore will give them fits in close games, but they get the Giants the second time around and Sweep the Eagles out of playoff contention to finish up at 10-6.

Philadelphia Eagles
Remaining Schedule  – @CIN, @BAL, AZ, @NYG, CLE, @WAS, DAL
Current Record 5-4
Projected Finish 9-7

Remarks: So I have to be honest…I really think there is a good possibility that the Eagles finish at 10-6…but to have Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington all finishing at 10-6…and Tampa finishing at 10-6 too…well, it starts to get to the point where it just seems like I am trying to make everyone happy. But walk with me for a minute. The Eagles should beat Cincinnati to get them to six wins. I say Baltimore beats them but I have already predicted that Arizona, New York, and Washington would all lose to the Eagles. If you are keeping score at home, that gets them to nine wins. Dallas wins to get into the playoffs to close out the season. That means that Cleveland would be the game that gets them their tenth win or their seventh loss. I think Cleveland starts to turn things around and beats them….but I still feel like we will have an unprecedented year in the NFC where we get seven ten win teams….Its crazy, but it is both mathematically possible…and not too far fetched.

Minnesota Vikings
Remaining Schedule  – @TB, @JAX, CHI, @DET, @AZ, ATL, NYG
Current Record 5-4
Projected Finish 9-7

Remarks: Minnesota doesn’t have the right coach in place and they need a QB…but it shouldn’t stop them from winning the NFC North on the third tie breaker…which is record against common opponents. I have projected that both teams will have the same head to head and also identical in division records. Minnesota is currently 3-2  against common opponents while Chicago is 1-4. The basic math has them beating Detroit and Jacksonville to get to seven wins…Atlanta and Chicago wins will get them to nine. They will lose to Arizona, Tampa, and New York. Realistically they are a lot better than they have played…slow starting against Green bay and Indy…but the win at Carolina showed more than any loss. Turnovers for touchdowns and a blocked punt for a score in the Chicago game gave the Bears 21 free points….but the Vikings put up 41 on the Bears defense…again telling me more about them than the final score. Adrian Peterson will carry this team the rest of the way…9-7 is good enough to win the NFC North. 

The Also Rans

Green Bay and New Orleans are basically done for the year already. At 4-5 now…basically everything up above this paragraph would need to be so entirely far off base for either team to make a feasible run at the postseason. Both teams should salvage something and finish at 8-8. Sure the Packers beat Indianapolis, but two of their other wins are against the Lions and the Seahawks. Ditto for New Orleans…quality wins against Tampa and San Diego, but the other two coming at the expense of Oakland and San Fransisco… things may have been different if they beat Denver…but that loss effectively ended their season…New Orleans seems to be a team that will press down the stretch and that will, in effect do them in.

Detroit may win a game…most likely spot to get them a W would be New Orleans or Green Bay to close out the season..Probably a better shot at going 0-16 though. Seattle will probably go 1-6 down the stretch beating only St. Louis…and that’s not even a lock. Mike Holmgren retires with a 3-13 final season. San Fransisco will get Mike Singletary three wins down the stretch against St. Louis twice and the Bills to finish at 5-11…The Rams wont win again this year and finish with a 2-14 record.

So….what does it all mean? Here is the Recap…

Division Winners

North – Minnesota 9-7
South  – Carolina 11-5
East – New York 12-4
West – Arizona 10-6

Wild Card

Washington, Dallas,Tampa will all finish with 10-6 records. So we go to the tiebreak system. The tiebreak will get complicated and end up ging all of the way down to strength of schedule. Two things stand out here for me. NFC East > NFC South…Dallas beat Tampa. This eliminates Tampa for me and gets Washington and Dallas the final two playoff spots.

Washington 10-6
Dallas 10-6 

So the byes go to New York and Carolina…That makes the Cardinals the three seed and the Vikings the four seed. Dallas will get the five seed because of points scored against conference opponents which will leave Washington the six seed.

3 Arizona v. 6 Washington - Washington Wins 31-21
4 Minnesota v. 5 Dallas  – Dallas Wins 30-18

1 New York v. 6 Washington – New York Wins 35-17
3 Carolina v. 5 Dallas – Dallas Wins 28-24

1 New York  v. 5 Dallas…. 

….man this is a tough one. On one hand I want to think that the Giants are just too much for Dallas…but will the Cowboys be on a mission? Do they avenge last years playoff loss to the Giants and live up to the hype? My heart says no…but my head says yes. The WCNYFG will revert to NYFG status at the end of January. Why? Tony Romo. He sheds the Peyton Manning Dan Marino / Can’t win the Big One Label. His ability to move around in the pocket and avoid the rush will be the difference. The Giants won it all from the five seed last year. I say the Cowboys continue the trend….Dallas 27 – New York 17….AFC Predicitons on Friday

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