What an absolutely perfect day. It’s sunny here in New England, there is all kinds of baseball trade news flashing across the InstaWebs, and I’m writing my first of hopefully many posts for Sparty & Friends.

Seems like a perfect time to discuss… Super Bowl Odds. Right? I can feel the enthusiasm oozing through the screen.

Well, as training camps begin to open around the country for the 2008 NFL season, gamblers are lining up to get the best odds on their picks – the favorites, the long-shots, and the sleepers alike. July and August are the best possible time to either make a boatload of money in February or lose your shirt with the first ACL injury in the preseason. I mean, how many bookies got crushed by preseason picks of the Giants at 25/1 to win it all last season?

Anyway, looking at the numbers this year, there are a few that stand out for one reason or another. So, after a short disclaimer, let’s break it down all scientific-like…

(Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have been in the past – sorry. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog and accurate as of the time this was typed. That about covers it.)

The Favorites:

New England Patriots (7/2): Any discussion about the Super Bowl really need to begin and end right here. And that’s not me speaking as a lifetime Pats’ fan, but as a lifetime gambler. At 7/2, the return on the bet isn’t all that great. But if you’re just looking to take your best chance at winning a bet, this is the route to go. 2/1 favorites to win the AFC outright isn’t a bad bet either.

Indianapolis Colts (15/2): I don’t like this line for a number of reasons, but the biggest one is the obvious one – “Peyton Manning”; “knee surgery”. Not to mention the return of Marvin Harrison after missing most of last year and having his own share of off-field issues since the 2007 season ended. To me, 15/2 isn’t enough of a payoff to take the risk involved in picking the Colts to win it all.

Dallas Cowboys (6/1): They’re a much better bet to win the NFC (9/5 favorites), but as last year proved – just get to the Super Bowl, and anything can happen. But they’ve certainly got the offense to win the NFC Title, and have enough defense to slow down most of the other major contenders. Again – better bet to win the NFC (even if the payoff isn’t all that great), but anything can happen in February.

The Second Tier:

Jacksonville Jaguars (12/1): Really, at this point in the year, they’re the only team getting a good enough number who actually has a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl this year. They’ve got a crushing defense and a competent offense – it won’t be pretty, but they’ve got the tools to take over the AFC South this year and make a stand in the AFC in general.

New York Giants (16/1): I can’t remember the last time a defending NFL Champion was this big of an underdog to repeat – maybe the 2002 Patriots. But let’s face it; no one saw them coming. pan>Hell, even my friends who are die-hard Giants fans were expecting Tom Coughlin to be fired by Week 12. 16/1 is a great number for a defending champion, but I’d look more to the 13/2 to win the NFC.

Minnesota Vikings (17/1): They’ve got the defense and the running game. Now all they need is a quarterback… If there’s any noise that Brett Favre might end up in Purple & Gold, jump on this line and the 7/1 to win the NFC before they both hit rock bottom.

The Long-Shots:

Green Bay Packers (25/1): With or without “He who shall remain nameless” under center, the Packers should still be the favorites to at least win the NFC North. But the Minnesota Vikings are getting better odds right now (7/1 to win the NFC, 17/1 to win it all). Maybe the oddsmakers are predicting #4 ends up in Minnesota after all; if that’s the case, not only will Minnesota’s numbers drop, but Green Bay’s will skyrocket.

New Orleans Saints (24/1): Last year wasn’t really that big of a surprise. They feasted on a last place schedule in 2006, then had to deal with a first place schedule in 2007. Not rocket science. This year, they get a third place schedule to work with – maybe with the addition of some defensive playmakers and the confidence building from picking up 10-11 regular season wins, they can make a strong push towards the NFC title (17/2) and the Super Bowl itself.

Oakland Raiders (50/1): Just kidding…

Pittsburgh Steelers (16/1): They’re not really a long shot, but at 16/1 they can’t exactly be called a favorite either. If they can avoid Jacksonville and New England in the playoffs, there’s no reason to think they couldn’t win the AFC (at 9/1) or go on to win it all.

The Sleepers:

Philadelphia Eagles (20/1): Donovan McNabb might not be among the marquis quarterback names in the league anymore, but Philly still has the talent to compete in the NFC. They might be playing for a Wild Card spot all year with Dallas in the same division, but that’s still a playoff berth and a chance to win four straight.

Arizona Cardinals (50/1): I do this every year. I find a reason to talk myself into a bet on the Cardinals at some ridiculous number. This year, I’m going to justify this with some combination of “They’ve made moves to upgrade the defense… The offense could really explode this year… the NFC West is weak… they’ve got a soft schedule…” I’m not expecting a big payout with them winning the Super Bowl. But at 50/1 and 20/1 to win the NFC, I just can’t pass up the opportunity.

Denver Broncos (50/1): Another team playing in the Western Division of their conference with no expectations. The difference from Arizona is, the Broncos have been contenders in the past decade. At 50/1 they’re more of a long shot than a sleeper, but remember – Mike Shanahan can conjure runningbacks out of thin air, Jay Cutler isn’t all that bad of a quarterback, and last year they had a cloud hanging over the team all season long with the death of Darrent Williams. With the malcontent Javon Walker out of town and still the best defensive backfield (at least on paper) in the league, the Broncos could easily make some noise.

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